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    Chapter Reducing inconsistency in AHP by combining Delphi and Nudge theory and network analysis of the judgements: an application to future scenarios

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    Author(s)
    Di Zio, Simone
    Language
    English
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    Abstract
    The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a Multi-Criteria method in which a number of decision factors (typically criteria and alternatives) are compared pairwise by one or more experts, using the Saaty scale, with the goal of sorting the alternatives (Saaty, 1977; 1980). For group AHP the Delphi method can be used in parallel with the AHP (Di Zio and Maretti, 2014), and this allows the search for a consensus on each pairwise judgement. A big issue of the AHP regards the inconsistency of the pairwise comparison matrices and here we propose a new method to reduce the inconsistency. As a solution we exploit the Nudge theory (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008) and from the second round of the Delphi survey, we calculate and circulate a Nudge to “gentle push” the experts towards more consistent evaluations. Furthermore, we propose the representation of the AHP matrices through graphs. In a direct graph two nodes are linked with two direct and weighted edges (or one edge with the direction based on the weights), where the weights indicate the evaluation given by an expert or, for a group, the geometric mean of the judgements. This type of visualization facilitates the reading of the results and could also be used as real-time feedback in the Delphi process, by displaying on the edges also a measure of variability. An application is proposed, on the evaluation of four future scenarios on the regulation of genetic modification experiments, assessed by a panel of 27 experts according to different criteria (plausibility, consistency and simplicity). The application demonstrated that it is possible to: a) reduce the inconsistency; b) collect useful textual material which enrich the AHP itself; c) use the inconsistency index as a stopping criterion for the Delphi rounds; d) display the pairwise comparison matrices with graphs.
    URI
    https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/56374
    Keywords
    Analytic Hierarchy Process; Delphi; Nudge theory; Inconsistency; Graphs
    DOI
    10.36253/978-88-5518-461-8.17
    ISBN
    9788855184618, 9788855184618
    Publisher
    Firenze University Press
    Publisher website
    https://www.fupress.com/
    Publication date and place
    Florence, 2021
    Series
    Proceedings e report, 132
    Pages
    6
    Rights
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    • Imported or submitted locally

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    License

    • If not noted otherwise all contents are available under Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

    Credits

    • logo EU
    • This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 683680, 810640, 871069 and 964352.

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