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    Chapter 8 Persistent Optimism under Political Uncertainty

    Proposal review

    The Evolution of Citizens’ Election Projections During a Protracted Political Crisis

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    Author(s)
    Tenenboim-Weinblatt, Keren
    Baden, Christian
    Aharoni, Tali
    Overbeck, Maximilian
    Collection
    European Research Council (ERC); EU collection
    Language
    English
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    This chapter examines the social dynamics of projections about the outcomes and implications of the repeated elections in Israel. Based on a combination of a panel survey and focus groups, we analyze citizens’ evolving predictions regarding the expected largest party, the next prime minister, the coalition composition, and the future of Israel more generally. Introducing a conceptual framework that breaks political projections into several constituent elements, we study what probabilities and evaluations people assign to their predictions, how they explain them, and what their implications are for political participation. We show that despite the deepening political crisis, Israeli citizens’ political optimism did not decrease during the three 2019–2020 election campaigns. Furthermore, we find an important link between intention to vote and the expected level of happiness about the predicted outcomes. Based on these findings, we argue that persistent optimism is one explanation for the higher voter turnout in each round of elections. In the epilogue we consider additional insights from the 2021 election, which saw a reversal in voters’ growing optimism and turnout, but which eventually fulfilled hopes of the anti-Netanyahu camp for political change.
    Book
    The Elections in Israel, 2019–2021
    URI
    https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/60502
    Keywords
    Elections; Israel; King Bibi; Netanyahu; populism; democracy
    DOI
    10.4324/ 9781003267911-11
    ISBN
    9781032213392, 9781032213408, 9781003267911
    Publisher
    Taylor & Francis
    Publisher website
    https://taylorandfrancis.com/
    Publication date and place
    2022
    Grantor
    • European Research Council (ERC) - 802990 - PROFECI Research grant informationFind all documents
    Imprint
    Routledge
    Classification
    Regional / International studies
    Pages
    28
    Rights
    https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
    • Imported or submitted locally

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    License

    • If not noted otherwise all contents are available under Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

    Credits

    • logo EU
    • This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 683680, 810640, 871069 and 964352.

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